I listened and watched the flood of reporting on Apple's "latest creation" this morning. Unless you've spent the day in an electromagnetically shielded cage, you know by now that all the tablet rumors were true, and the new device is called the iPad. (insert your own joke about the name here...)

So, what is it?

As the picture shows, the iPad is pretty much a supersized iPod Touch (or optionally an iPhone sans the phone part). I wasn't alone in wondering why Jobs went on & on about how the device has all the "latest in wireless" (were the 4G rumors true?) when all he was talking about was 802.11n WiFi. It was wise not to feature up front that the only 3G network option for this "creation", as for the iPhone, is still AT&T.

Jobs started his presentation by stating that

"All of us use laptops and smartphones now. The question has arisen lately: is there room for a third category of device in the middle?"

So, here's the 1st problem: there is a LOT in that middle already (and oh... by the way... smartphone adoption is still less than 20% of all cell phones). What may have looked like a gap for Apple is a fragmented and increasingly overcrowded space for the rest of the industry.

Jobs went on to say that this gap called for:

"something better than a laptop for watching video, browsing photos, enjoying your music, reading ebooks, playing games. If there’s going to be a third category it has to do better at these tasks than your laptop or smartphone."

He then went on to arrogantly attack netbooks, (which just happen to be the fastest growing segment of the PC market), by saying "they're not better at anything, they're just cheaper".

Oh really? I can almost hear another "iDon't" campaign starting now:

• iDon't run your PC programs (or your MAC-OS programs for that matter)
• iDon't have a keyboard (though you can buy one as an add-on)
• iDon't multitask
• iDon't have a built-in camera
• iDon't have a hard drive
  
• iDon't let you change the battery
  
• iDon't know what to do with Flash media
  

What can it do? Well, it can run your iPhone apps, because it has the iPhone OS.

It's not a netbook killer, because netbooks are PCs (even if they are used mostly for web browsing). This is an entertainment/media device. Nothing wrong with that, but this is a different category. The iPad adds to the fragmentation of the market between smartphones and laptops, it doesn't eliminate it.

This same point is often lost when people ask whether Android smartphones are iPhone killers. They're different! If you are in love with iTunes or your iPod Touch, and no small number of folks are, you may just love an iPhone too. I have one, but if I was choosing today it would probably be an Android phone. All the "iDon'ts" really do drive me crazy.

There were a multitude of tablet computers shown at the recent Consumer Electronics Show, so this is nothing other than Apple's entry. Let the competition begin.

Some were floored when Jobs dramatically dropped the price on them. I think he deserves an Oscar nomination for that performance. Apple's marketing department also deserves an award for successfully seeding the press with the notion that the price would be around $1000. Chris O'Brien at the Merc has even fallen for it, writing in Why Apple's iPad will change gadget world.

Whatever the price, though, my gut reaction was this: "Apple may have just killed the netbook market." Let me also add: This is probably a Kindle killer. Sorry, Amazon.

Here's the deal on the price: (hint.. think iPod tiered approach)

• 16GB WiFi model: $499
• 32GB WiFi model: $599
• 64GB WiFI model: $699

• 16GB 3G model: $629
  
• 32GB 3G model: $729
• 64GB 3G model: $829

Still look cheap? I don't see how the iPad competes with netbooks at all. Not from a price standpoint, and not from a functionality standpoint.

What about ereaders? Apple also announced a new iBook store.

Well, first of all, the Kindle sells for just $259. The Kindle also doesn't require a wireless data service contract. Oh, did I forget to mention that? Much of the press was all agog that the iPad will use a pre-paid monthly service on AT&T. No 2-year contract required. Woo hoo!

The service contract will add $14.99 per month for up to 250MB of data, or $29.99 per month for "unlimited" data. That is cheaper than AT&T data plans for netbooks: $35/$60 for 200MB/5GB per month, but it makes for a pretty expensive ebook reader. And oh, don't forget, there's a Kindle app for the iPhone, and it's free! Any reason to think it wouldn't work on the iPad?

If you want a color ebook reader, there will be many on the market this year. But $629 vs. $259 looks like a pretty steep price to pay to upgrade from the equivalent 3G-equipped Kindle.

So, where does that leave the iPad? Not a netbook killer, not a Kindle killer, and not a gap filler. It's something else, which is just like Apple isn't it?

I don't doubt that the Apple cult will probably eat up the iPad. There will be more cool apps for it. But check back in one year, and you will see Apple's tablet competing against Windows 7 tablets and Android/Google-Chrome tablets. There will be Apple fans and those who aren't, just like Macs versus PCs. Apple fans may think of Steve Jobs as god, but he isn't the only one working on new "creations".

-Mike

As promised, this post will provide a follow up to my earlier article on Testing Clearwire #WiMAX at #CES in Las Vegas. While in Las Vegas for the Consumer Electronics show earlier this month, I rented a Motorola USB modem from Cheetah Wireless to connect to Clearwire's WiMAX network. Along with providing me with assurance that I could connect to the internet while I was at the show, (a good call since AT&T's 3G network was just about useless), I was interested to perform a little hands-on test as I roamed around to various venues in Las Vegas.

You can check my earlier post for the details, but to summarize - I achieved a peak download (DL) speed of 11.45 MBPS and peak upload (UL) of 0.88 MBPS. Average speeds were 5.14 MBPS DL and 0.58 MBPS UL. This is well within the advertised speeds from Clearwire:














I was quite surprised then, when I discovered the Motorola WiMAX demonstration in their exhibit at the Las Vegas Convention Center. It was puzzling how they were getting more than 3 MBPS UL, when I could only get 0.48 MBPS at the same time. How could they exceed the speeds that Clearwire specified for their network?














I asked Motorola if they were actually using the publicly available Clearwire network or some sort of demo setup, and this was their response:

First off, to answer your question, yes this was a public connection to Clear's WiMAX network in Las Vegas.

Motorola's WiMAX USB devices used at CES were standard USBw 100 devices provisioned to and using Clear's public WiMAX service. These devices have the "Unlimited Mobile Plan" from Clear which has download speeds up to 6.0 Mbps (with bursts over 10 Mbps) and upload speeds up to 1.0 Mbps. According to Clear's website, actual performance may vary.

During the show, Motorola was seeing speeds anywhere from 2 to 8 Mbps on the downlink to 0.5 to 3 Mbps on the uplink. Speed differences were noticed on our devices based on the time of the day for speed tests, which speed test service being used, and the location of the actual speed test servers. For example, Motorola noticed that speed tests done with the default Las Vegas servers typically had lower overall data rates while servers located on the west coast had much better results.

I also checked with Clearwire, and their initial response was that the Motorola results must have been "theoretical". In earlier discussions at the show, they had told me that they chose to emphasize DL speeds in allocating their TDD spectrum, since it is generally what impacts consumer experiences the most. Clearwire added:

In theory you can see faster UL speeds but today, commercially, your experience with the CLEAR modem was representative of the customer experience.

Something didn't add up. The 4.25(DL) : 3.20(UL) Motorola showed just didn't match the allocation ratio that Clearwire said they were using. So, still unsatisfied with the answers I received I turned to Corey O'Hanlon, the Sales Manager at Cheetah Wireless to see if he could help.

Corey diligently checked with his techs, and they came up with what turned out to be the real answer:

Motorola had an uncapped device. One of 2 ways that occurs is either, since they make the devices they can make an uncapable device, or through an account they have, Clear uncapped the device. The downloads would be very similiar since the download speeds are uncapped, but on the Clear end the upload speeds are throttled and capped at 1mb.

The end-result is that Clearwire's network is capable of much higher upload speeds than I experienced, but even their "unlimited" plan uses software to place a limit on what a user can achieve. No harm there, as long as the experience matches what is advertised. However, the demo that Motorola put on was definitely false advertising. I still don't know if they disabled the cap on their own, or if this was done in collaboration with Clearwire.

As a footnote, it is interesting to compare these WiMAX test results to a report that came out this week on LTE tests in Sweden. According to the report from Network World:

download speed offered by Swedish operator TeliaSonera's LTE (Long-Term Evolution) network never exceeded 12M bps when tested by market research company Northstream, a far cry from the "up to 50Mbps" promised on the provider's Web site.

The article goes on to say that upload speeds of 5 MBPS were achieved. So, after all the endless hype of WiMAX vs. LTE speeds, it's good to finally get comparable real-world results. As Verizon continues on their path to rollout LTE in the U.S. this year, and Clearwire continues on their ongoing WiMAX rollout plan, the good news is that many more of us will be able to experience peaks of 10 MBPS download with mobility soon. As for the upload speeds... 1-5 MBPS depending on your software hacking skills.

-Mike

The Santa Clara Valley chapter of the IEEE Consumer Electronics (CE) Society is hosting their annual "Consumer Electronics Show Download" on Tuesday, January 26. The meeting will be held at Hewlett Packard, Cupertino, in the Oak Room

I will be presenting my highlights of CES, along with Gary Sasaki (DIGDIA), Tom Coughlin (Coughlin Assoc.), and Chris Pedersen (nVidia).

Admission is free for IEEE CES members and students. Other IEEE members are charged just $5, and non-members - $10. You do not need to be an IEEE member to attend, so I look forward to seeing many of you there.

As a teaser, here is the agenda for my presentation of Highlights from (in & around) CES:

1. Google Nexus One
2. AT&T Developer Summit
   
3. Android Beyond Smartphones
4. Verizon’s 1st Public Demo of LTE
5. Mobile TV
6. Video Everywhere & Anywhere
7. mirasol® Color Displays
8. Some Really Sweet Analog

It promises to be a fun and interesting meeting.

-Mike

p.s. (01/28/2010) The slides are now available at the IEEE Santa Clara Valley CE Chapter website.

While in Las Vegas last week for the Consumer Electronics Show, I decided to avoid the clogged convention center WiFi (and just about unusable AT&T 3G/2G/what exactly do 5 bars mean anyway?) with a daily rental of a Clearwire WiMAX Modem.









I logged my connection speeds throughout the week at various locations; my hotel, a Starbucks ~0.5 miles away, the Pearl Theater at the Palms Hotel during the AT&T Developer Summit, and at the Las Vegas Convention Center. Results varied of course, but overall coverage was very impressive and download speeds were better than the 2-6MBPS download speeds I have seen reported for Clearwire's initial rollout in Portland. With some LTE advocates claiming that the 2.5GHz WiMAX carrier would be inferior for in-building use, I was especially impressed that I had a reasonable connection inside the subterranean Pearl Theater.

The upload speed was another story however, as I was never able to hit even 1 MBPS.
















While at the Convention Center, I noticed that Motorola was also demonstrating Clearwire WiMAX on a laptop computer in their exhibit.  The demonstrator kindly allowed me to pull out my netbook for a side-by-side test. He was even running the same test from speedtest.net that I was using. My Asus 1101 netbook is on the right in the picture below, and Motorola's HP netbook is on the left.














The result of the test is a mystery, because our download speeds were well within the variation I had seen, but the upload speeds weren't even close.



















The 3.2MBPS UL speed of the Motorola demo just doesn't make sense for a couple of reasons. First, I was getting roughly 0.5 MBPS at the same time. Second, the TDD split of DL/UL resources that Clearwire uses is no where near 50-50, yet the Motorola results were in the ratio of 4:3 DL:UL

.















I noticed after the test that Motorola was using a Clearwire server in Portland, which Speedtest would not have chosen on its own. I did ask the demonstrator if they had a special channel of some sort for the demo, and he did not think that they did.

So.. what's the explanation?  I did have problems with the install, and had to download a generic wireless USB driver to get the modem to work. That seems unlikely to be the cause to me.  My inquiries to Clearwire have not been answered as of the date of this writing, so check back later. I will add their response to this post as soon as I receive it.

-Mike

Verizon hosted a breakfast event for industry analysts at CES today, offering a sneak peek at forthcoming 4G LTE developments. Alcatel-Lucent setup a live LTE network for partner demonstrations of LTE devices and applications.

Some of the other partner companies participating:
Ericsson
Motorola
Creative Labs
4Home
nVidia

This photo shows an HD video streaming over LTE to a tablet device and the widescreen flat panel TV.  Other applications demonstrated included home security and energy management.

Here are a few more pictures from last nights CES preview at "The Digital Experience":














I wrote about the Qualcomm Mirasol technology in my report from CTIA Wireless IT & Entertainment Show. The latest announcement at CES is of a forthcoming Mirasol-based e-reader.  The device above is scheduled to ship in 2H of 2010. I also have a video to upload, showing the video capability of the Mirasol display.













This is an "experiment" between Qualcomm and HP, which employs the ARM-based SnapDragon processor in a netbook.  HP modified the Android operating system for the netbook application (not Google Chrome OS), and to accomodate the larger screen.In my discussion with the demonstrator, it was clear that this is just an experiment, so don't expect a product soon.

-Mike

It's been a looong day at CES, with all the pre-show press/analyst events along with the AT&T Developer Summit. I have much more to report, but all I have time for is a few pics tonight.

Here is the Google Nexus One, which I got to play with a little bit tonight: